The Hidden Kings of Congress: How Ultra-Orthodox Jews Hold the Keys to House Control

Ultra-Orthodox jewish voters in particular have emerged as the rarest of swing voters.

Not particularly partisan, they have fervently supported both former President Donald J. Trump and Democratic politicians, often acting as a bloc.

How they vote in November could tip several of the nation’s marquee House races — possibly in opposite directions.

“Here you have three congressional seats within miles of each other that could essentially decide the chamber, and the Orthodox Jewish community could play a pivotal role in each,” said Simcha Eichenstein, a state assemblyman and Democratic power broker involved in the races.

Because Orthodox Jewish voters are notoriously difficult to poll, their influence is unlikely to show up in pre-election surveys, which show the races neck and neck. In many sects, they tend to wait for the endorsements of grand rebbes just days before an election. (None of the candidates in the three races are Jewish.)

The sizable Orthodox Jewish vote has long been a coveted constituency in New York City politics. But while important leaders like the ones Mr. Ryan met remain anchored in Brooklyn, they hold sway over increasingly influential upstate outposts where cheaper land has led to a population boom and new sets of challenges for governments to untangle.

A couple of dozen miles north in the 18th District, Mr. Ryan has just as aggressively courted voters in Kiryas Joel, home to offshoots of Brooklyn’s Satmar Jewish communities that tend to vote in similarly large numbers.

Mr. Trump won…   98 percent of the vote there in 2020 and could clean up again this year. But in 2022, Mr. Ryan, a Democrat, carried about 60 percent of the vote.

Republicans are not conceding. Mr. Johnson is said to be in talks to meet with one of the community’s top leaders before Election Day, and Mr. Ryan’s opponent, Alison Esposito, has questioned his commitment to Israeli defense. But a member of the community with knowledge of the matter said that Mr. Ryan had already been assured that both Kiryas Joel’s competing Satmar factions would back him.

“To go against the incumbent is like giving the guy a pink slip,” said Rabbi Moishe Indig, a Satmar leader based in Brooklyn.

“In order to fire somebody, you’ve got to be bad.”